Air Conditioning Refrigerant To Reshape the Industry Market

Air Conditioning Refrigerant To Reshape Industry

As Freon is gradually phased out, this is the most intense change that refrigerants are experiencing, and Global regulations and technological innovations are colluding to lead the air conditioning industry into a sustainable future.

As the “blood” of the refrigeration system, air conditioning refrigerant plays a major role in heat transfer. When it moves in the setup, it goes through a change from low-pressure vapor to high-pressure liquid, takes and gives off heat, and so achieves a cool effect. With the tightening of worldwide climate rules and the rise in green thinking, old refrigerants are facing new pressure to be replaced.

In 2023, the global air conditioning refrigerant market size hit $29.42 billion and expects to reach $54.3 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 7.05% — industry rebuilding caused by both green rules and tech change.

Global Regulation-Driven Refrigerant Replacement Wave

International agreements accelerate the phase-out of highly-polluting air conditioning refrigerants. The Montreal Protocol rules that the high ODP R22 refrigerant shall be totally phased out in developed countries by 2020 and 2030 in developing countries. Also, HFCs were regulated by the Kigali Amendment adopted in 2016 which required China to freeze HFC levels at baseline in 2024 and then progressively reduce it by 2029.

US EPA has instituted a very tight schedule through AIM (American Innovation and Manufacturing Act), under which starting from January 1, 2025, will ban the use of R410A in newly manufactured residential and commercial air conditioning systems along with cutting HFC production 40% in 2024 and 85% by 2036.

The EU F-GAS regulation also prohibits refrigerants with a global warming potential (GWP) of more than 750 in air conditioning equipment from 2025. These regulations jointly promote the transformation of Air Conditioning Refrigerants towards environmental protection.

a new generation refrigerant

R454B shows breakthrough advantages:

  • Environmental indicators: GWP value drops from 2088 to 466, ODP=0
  • Energy efficiency improvement: Heating capacity is 12% higher than R32 at -15℃, and COP reaches 2.8
  • Safety adaptation: The compressor sealing material needs to be modified, and the filling volume is reduced by 30%

The natural refrigerant R290 (propane) has become a zero carbon emission benchmark, with ODP=0 and GWP<3, which almost eliminates the impact of the greenhouse effect. Gree Electric’s independently developed R290 refrigerant air conditioner has passed the German VDE certification, and its energy efficiency has reached the national first-level standard.

CO₂ transcritical technology breaks through the high-temperature limit and can provide 90-120℃ hot water for industrial applications, with energy consumption 45% lower than coal-fired boilers.

Competition and differences in the air conditioning refrigerant market

The global refrigerant market shows obvious regional differentiation. European and American companies lead technological innovation. Honeywell, Chemours and other companies actively develop low GWP refrigerants and promote the application of R454B in the North American market. Chemours focuses on innovation and sustainable development and has developed a series of low global warming potential refrigerant products that comply with environmental regulations.

China, as the world’s largest air conditioning production base (accounting for 80% of global production), chose R290 as the main technical route and successfully promoted the revision of the international safety standard IEC60335-2-40 to increase the R290 charging limit.

The regional market presents three major technical routes:

  • Western European market: R32 accounts for more than 60%, R290 accounts for 20%;
  • North American market: R454B emerges in split air conditioners;
  • Emerging markets: The Middle East and Latin America are still dominated by transitional R410A;

The Asia-Pacific region shows the highest growth potential due to rapid urbanization, increased disposable income and increased construction activities.

The actual impact of refrigerant upgrading

For consumers, refrigerant substitution brings changes in costs and maintenance strategies. The US relevant agency stipulates that the market will not immediately eliminate existing R410A systems, but refrigerant prices are expected to rise significantly. New equipment using R454B or R290 will increase the initial acquisition cost by about 30% due to the need to redesign the safety system.

Long-term economic benefits are still significant. Heat pump systems using R290 save 40%-50% operating costs compared to gas boilers and 60%-70% compared to electric heating. After a villa in Beijing used an air-energy heat pump combined with a floor heating system, the average monthly electricity bill in winter dropped to 600 yuan (1,500 yuan for a gas boiler).

For the industry, the manufacturing system needs to be fully upgraded. The R290 production line needs to meet explosion-proof requirements, and the R454B system needs to replace hydrogenated nitrile rubber sealing materials. Chinese companies have passed the EN378 certification, paving the way for entering the European market.

Conclusion

The future direction of air conditioning refrigerants systems shall be R32 as the current dominant choice, R454B to take the commercial field from 2025 and R290 to become the final choice for home AC systems as a near-zero global warming potential with continuing safety technology development.

According to this, International Energy Agency (IEA) prediction figures, by 2030 with 600 million heat pumps deployed it shall be possible to reduce 500 millions tons of carbon dioxide emissions every year. It is equal to getting rid of 120 million gasoline-powered cars. The green transformation of refrigerants is redefining the sustainable way for humans to control temperature.

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